We recently had the grand opening of the new STOR-i building on campus so we are no longer borrowing space from other departments, but finally have our own STOR-i exclusive space.
We also displayed the recent posters we made from the previous simulation masterclass given by Barry Nelson in the new MRes baseroom. The one I worked on with Emily, Anna and Rob is below and is titled “Simulation Confidence Intervals for Input Uncertainty”.
My fellow MRes student Harjit, looking at the posters. Harjit’s blog.
The idea behind simulation models is that we can use them to make predictions of what might happen in the real world. As we want often want to use the results of these simulations to inform decision making it is important for the results to be accurate and precise. The way we do this is by keeping a careful eye on the errors.
Traditionally people have focused on trying to minimise the error that crops up in the actual simulation itself, the technical name for this is the ‘simulation-estimation error‘.
However there is another important error that is often overlooked and needs to be taken into account as well, the ‘input-uncertainty error‘. This is to do with the uncertainty in the actual values you plug into your simulation to start with.
This week at STOR-i was taken up by a visitor from the other side of the pond who delivered the first masterclass of the year to the MRes students. The topic was on ‘Simulation’ and was given by Barry Nelson from NorthWestern University, who also helps to supervise Lucy Morgan’s PhD.